I believe that no one will remember but towards the end of December 2009 I just had to do estimates on the possible future evolution of the Ibex 35 (big mistake of mine, perhaps madness , but I did a little exercise of technical analysis).
Now that you've spent half the year (well over half of the year if we are objective) it's time to take stock of such bold predictions. I will be my own critic, but you also have a voice.
The analysis was in the blessed quiet that followed the storm of housing and credit crisis (with a year's electrifying descent) and, ignorant and happy all of us, preceded, as well the saying goes, a new storm with sovereign debt crisis of Greece (and were also involved other countries like Spain, Portugal and Italy - the misnamed PIGS by its acronym in English, you know, the English and humor -).
At that time I considered two scenarios: one optimistic and one pessimistic. I will make a brief introduction of what was said at that time and then explain my conclusions.
optimistic scenario.
After conducting a head-shoulder invested shoulder from November 2008 to June 2009 (the book, by the way) explained the rise to 12,000 points, from a low of 7,000 points in March.
Even in an optimistic scenario, which incidentally also I thought that was the most likely, I was indifferent to the loss of strength evidenced by "wearing" bullish thus, could be understood, a small correction to occur 11,000 points but easily surpass the 12,000 mark after the rebound.
In any prediction can not miss the pessimistic side we advise caution, given wisely in the shadow of the experience, on the premise that the future is, and always will be uncertain.
pessimistic scenario.
I put in the 11,000 points barrier as support or differentiating between the sign optimistic and bassist of the analysis because it seemed to me the technical standard. If any event was to break this support would be in a bearish scenario, and it was then, when it appeared the Greek Crisis .
was published between late January and early February 2010 but the market moved, as always, before heading clearly bearish ("inside information? Draw your own conclusions.)
Ignoring innocently suggested as a possible future first floor, with a negative event, 10,000 points (now last forever remind me that just as there is no "ceiling" there is no "floor"). In the case of another crisis (not the discarded) proposed the soil in the 7,000.
Actually this second crisis, a consequence of the above, I thought it was "disposable." I was skeptical about a new crisis, what a mistake and I said so at the entrance.
Where I was wrong to point to the next level of support. I suggested at 7,000 points, but eventually formed in the 9,000. On the other hand, the area was clear support and there was formed.
The new floor for the "new" crisis (I doubted at the time of pointing between the two amounts, but the support was and it was true, because it was formed, 9,000 points).
Conclusions.
This "test kit" has been very productive despite the "small" inaccuracies. All conclusions are very positive, although we have been witnessing a systemic crisis and a replica of it. Ugh!
discovered that the future is not known neither his father (this is good although it seems). Also that technical analysis does not help to guess, nor fundamental analysis (no mistake). But we do find that the fundamentals give us more security (it makes us think we know something about the company) and helps us to abstract from the "surge" high-fear in the markets plunging (if a company is cheap with a price if, moreover, goes back down then the company will be cheaper, "dangerous?).
also found some figures that repeat themselves and perform their function over time. Especially striking shoulder - head - shoulder inverted (hch i). The bad thing that can not be predicted. What seemed to me a double floor at 10,000 points then developed as a possible hch i, "end of form? I do not know.
As final conclusions we can say that technical analysis supports the principles on - strengths are fulfilled to the letter (almost as a dogma of faith) and if we want to predict the future with this type of analysis or other other type, we should always ask two scenarios possible: one optimistic and one pessimistic. For all that can happen.
So for now, you can enjoy the stock rising to the 11,000 (following resistance) where there may be an upward correction.
Greetings
